Yesterday's date came and went without much any commemoration of the 18 August which GOSS designated as Hero's day. It is only in Torit that the occasion was celebrated yesterday in memory of the uprising that took placed place there some 55 years ago. Why has GOSS forgotten this important occasion this time round?
Managers
Sudan Media Monitoring
18 August 2010
REFERENDUM COUNTDOWN: 143 Days
“Don’t count the days, make the days count.”
– Muhammad Ali
A daily digest of news articles on Sudan.
THE LEDE
SPLM to boycott meeting to discuss southern Sudan referendum on 19 August
Sudan Tribune website, Paris
18 August 2010; 07:11 GMT
Text of report in English by Paris-based Sudanese newspaper Sudan Tribune website on 18 August
Wednesday 18 August 2010 (KHARTOUM): The ex-Southern rebel group announced that it will not take part in a meeting called for by Sudanese president Umar Hasan al-Bashir scheduled for Thursday [19 August] to discuss preparations for referendum.
Ibrahim Ghandur, the head of political relations bureau at the ruling National Congress Party (NCP) headed by Al-Bashir, said invitations were sent to all political parties without exception.
The meeting was originally scheduled for last month but was cancelled after opposition parties insisted that other issues to be discussed including Darfur crisis, deteriorating economic conditions of the people, democratic transformation and political freedoms.
Some parties accused NCP at the time of seeking to them share the responsibility for splitting up the nations despite marginalizing them in all the crucial decisions that led to this situation.
In less than six months time, people from Sudan's oil-producing south are due to vote in a referendum on whether they should secede and form Africa's newest nation - a plebiscite promised under a 2005 accord that ended decades of north-south civil war.
It is widely expected that the Southerners will opt for secession after decades of bitter war that claimed millions of lives and feelings of marginalization by the Arab-Muslim dominated North.
The Sudan People Liberation Movement (SPLM) deputy secretary general Yasir Arman said in a statement today that the political bureau of the movement decided to skip the meeting with Al-Bashir.
"This [meeting] appears more of an NCP leadership meeting than a joint meeting of political powers that allows everyone to reach a consensus and come with a joint vision" Arman said in the statement.
"Therefore the SPLM regrets that it will not be part of Thursday's meetings and we hope to participate in an upcoming meeting that would have better preparation and agreement among its participants,".
It is not clear whether other parties will share the same position by the SPLM. Previously the Umma Party headed by Al-Sadiq Al-Mahdi rejected Al-Bashir's invitation saying it was addressed to its leader and not to the party.
In a related issue, the NCP said that an arrangement known as the "four freedoms" cannot be put in place between the North and South in the event of secession.
The head of the NCP organization bureau told the government sponsored Sudanese Media Centre (SMC) website that if the South becomes an independent sate it will be responsible for its people.
The "four freedoms" is an accord signed between Sudan and Egypt that allows citizens from both countries to have the right to work, reside, own and move freely between the two countries. It has yet to be fully implemented between the countries due to objections from the Egyptian parliament.
A meeting hosted by Cairo last month between the NCP and the SPLM suggested a similar accord between the North and South for a post-separation state.
DARFUR AID WORKER EXPULSION
Sudan confirms planned expulsion of international aid workers from Darfur for 'violations'
Associated Press Newswires
18 August 2010
12:02 GMT
KHARTOUM, Sudan (AP) - Sudan says it will expel a number of international aid workers from the restive western region of Darfur, without specifying how many.
Local media reported earlier this week that six foreign staffers, including employees of the International Committee of the Red Cross, had been told to leave the country.
Foreign Ministry spokesman, Muwaia Khaled told the Associated Press on Wednesday that the aid workers were being deported because of individual "violations," not problems with their organizations.
He did not elaborate on the nature of the offenses.
Relations between aid groups and the Sudanese government have been deteriorating since March 2009, when 11 international organizations were expelled from the country.
Sudan reportedly expelled foreign aid workers over "rape detection devices"
Sudan Tribune website, Paris
18 August 2010; 07:24 GMT
Text of report in English by Paris-based Sudanese newspaper Sudan Tribune website on 18 August
Wednesday 18 August 2010 (KHARTOUM): The Sudanese government's decision to expel five aid officials last Sunday was made over its discovery that they were distributing "rape-detection devices" to several relief groups working in Darfur, according to one official here.
The commissioner for humanitarian aid in western Darfur Muhammad al-Hasan al-Awad was quoted by the local press as saying that the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR) sent the devices to the aid groups operating at the Eastern localities of Western Darfur.
"They [UNHCR] sent the devices to [the] American IMC organization and the Norwegian MAC organization. The first [organization] accepted the devices but the second [organization] rejected [it]," Al-Awad said.
The Sudanese official also accused UNHCR of paying researchers in Wadi Saleh area to collect information on rape cases.
"The head of the [UNHCR] office said the [activity] was done for the purpose of work and not to incriminate," he added.
Furthermore, Al-Awad said that the International Committee of the Red Cross (ICRC) visited areas controlled by a faction that split from the Sudan Liberation Movement (SLM) led by Abd al-Wahid al-Nur without permission. He said that ICRC representative was directed to go to other areas but he insisted to go to rebel controlled areas and ended up having his car abducted and staff accompanying him.
With regard to expelling the representative of the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) of the United Nations, Al-Awad alleged that he was collecting unauthorized signatures for a petition from the IDP camps and NGO's to press the government to declare famine in the area.
The expulsion was the latest in a series of crackdown by Khartoum on the aid groups.
Last month, Sudan expelled two aid workers from the International Organization for Migration after the Hague-based International Criminal Court (ICC) issued a second warrant of arrest for President Bashir on three counts of genocide allegedly committed in Darfur region.
In March 2008, Sudan expelled 13 international aid NGOs following the issuance of the first ICC's arrest warrant for president Umar Hasan Al-Bashir on charges of war crime and crimes against humanity.
NGOs in Darfur provide food and medical aid as well as access to clean water for more than 2 million people affected by the Darfur conflict which was ignited in 2003 between the central government in Khartoum and rebels accusing it of neglecting to develop the region.
The Sudanese government this month was accused by the UN of denying access to Kalma camp in South Darfur which houses around 100,000 IDP's.
POLITICS/GOVERNMENT
SPLM requests S.Kordofan governor post transferred from NCP
Radio Miraya FM website, Juba
18 August 2010 10:10 GMT+3
The SPLM political bureau meeting's final communiqué asked for the transfer of the post of governor of south Kordofan to SPLM, after six months period, given to the National congress, ended according to the CPA.
Kiir Appoints New Ministers; The new GoSS Minister for Agriculture and Forestry Dr Anne Itto
Gurtong Trust website, Juba
18 August 2010
JUBA, 18 August 2010 (Gurtong) – President Kiir has also appointed Jimmy Lemi Milla the new Government of Southern Sudan Minister for Cooperatives and Rural Development.
Dr Itto, a key South Sudan Liberation Movement (SPLM) official, replaces the immediate former Minister the late Dr Samson Kwaje who died early this month at a Nairobi hospital.
According to Southern Sudan Radio, both appointments take effect immediately.
South Sudan seeks immediate financial assistance for road building
Sudan Tribune website, Paris
18 August 2010
August 17, 2010 (RENK) - The regional government of South Sudan on Tuesday made a public appeal targeting donor communities to release funds for immediate construction of roads and bridges.
In a press statement to media on Tuesday in Juba, Anthony Makana, the south's minister for roads and transport said that his government has given roads priority but lack of funds has hindered progress.
"Every day I receive an average of three to five (international) companies who want to do the roads but I tell them we don't have money," the minister said according to Reuters. "To connect all major towns in southern Sudan we need 13,000 km (8,000 miles) of roads ... we need five to six billion dollars to Tarmac about 80 percent of that," Reuters reported him as saying.
Makana said only three towns had asphalt roads in southern Sudan: Juba, the capital has 43 km (27 miles) Wau and Malakal have only 17 km (11 miles) combined
According to Reuters, Makana said that his budget of 463 million Sudanese pounds ($195 million) for this year was the "second biggest budget after security". "But I don't see this money ... about 70 percent of the budget goes to the companies who have already done work. That is why you may see in some places we are lagging behind in terms of addressing the challenges of infrastructure."
What is left of the budget, after paying the companies that have already completed work, is spent on rehabilitating dirt roads rather than starting new projects the minister said. With southern Sudan's referendum due to take place in less than five months, Makana requested that donors provide funds so that infrastructure projects can begin the poll.
The south is widely expected to vote to separate from the north. The referendum part of a peace deal between the ruling National Congress Party of president and Sudan People's Liberation Movement (SPLM), which ended 22 years of conflict. Since the 2005 the SPLM have governed southern Sudan as a autonomous region forming a government and establishing institutions.
According to Reuters:
Southern officials and aid agencies have in the past criticized the World Bank-led programme to administer donor money to the south as cumbersome and complex, saying it contributed to the slow development of the south post peace.
The World Bank admits there was a slow start to the programme but says major achievements have since been made including rehabilitating 363 km (227 miles) of roads and maintaining 945 km (590 miles).
The Ministry of Labor and Public Service Says Pension Of Civil Servants Must Be Paid
Sudan Radio Service (SRS) website, Nairobi
18 August 2010
18 August 2010 - (Juba) – The Ministry of Labor and Public Service in the government of southern Sudan says that pensions for civil servants must be paid by GoNU.
The Acting Undersecretary in the Ministry of Labor and Public Service Hellen Achiro Lutara said civil servants have all the rights to demand for pension because they contributed money to the government.
She was speaking to SRS on Tuesday in Juba.
[Hellen Achiro] “ At one time before the peace could be in place GONU Government was the one even responsible in the whole country , so people had been contributing towards the pension fund and it is the right of our people to ensure what they had contributed towards their pension they had to be paid . And the Government that had receiving this money should be responsible to ensure that the people get their dues.
That was the Acting Undersecretary in the Ministry of Labor and Public Service Hellen Achiro Lutara speaking to SRS in Juba.
Southern Sudan Speaker expected row with SPLM-DC would be resolved
The Citizen, Khartoum
18 August 2010; 11:04 GMT
Text of report in English by Sudanese newspaper The Citizen on 18 August
The Speaker for Southern Sudan Legislative Assembly (SSLA), James Wani Igga, said he is confident for resolving member row of the Sudan People's Liberation Movement for Democratic Change (SPLM - DC). In statements shortly after approval of the chairpersons and deputies of Specialized Committees yesterday, Igga said it was among the important matters at hand, needing attention.
"Maybe some of you expect us to bring it now but the people for input are the Minister for Legal Affairs, John Luk and the Minister for Parliamentary Affairs, Michael Makwei," he said. "I am sure that we will resolve it.. I am confident about that".
Although the matter remained unresolved for the moment, MPs of Sudan People's Liberation Movement for Democratic Change (SPLM - DC) have loosely started attending Parliamentary proceedings. A motion seeking resolution of the waiver of their immunity was rejected last week on condition that it was not procedural. Assembly leadership had demanded that their immunity should first be restored before they begin attending normal proceedings.
Their immunities were waived last June due to an alleged connection to a killing incident in which seven civilians and a paramount chief were horrendously murdered in Panyikang in Upper Nile State last May. The accused members of Sudan People's Liberation Movement for Democratic Change (SPLM - DC) denied any connection, saying that implicating them was politically motivated.
Minister of Legal Affairs and Constitutional Development, John Luk Jok wrote to the Assembly through the Speaker, noting that there were insufficient evidences implicating the accused in the murder. The most pressing issue Wanui cited was the impending referendum. According to Twich East County representative Deng Dau Deng, insecurity and poor roads were among other things the Parliament should shift into top gear and fight.
Jonglei State Assembly imposes financial contribution for referendum
Sudan Tribune website, Paris
18 August 2010
August 17, 2010 (BOR) – Jonglei State Legislative Assembly has unanimously passed a bill that requires all employed citizens to pay money to support a successful conduct of the upcoming referendum on 9th January 2011.
Called ’Citizen Referendum Contributions Bill’, the document demands that executives pay 1,000 Sudanese pounds (SDG) per month for five months. Members of the state assembly, directors and other civil servants will pay 500, 250 and 10 SDG per month for five months depending on their respective level of grades. Unclassified staffs and unemployed citizens of Jonglei state will pay 5 SDG once. The organized forces, according to the bill – now law- will contribute varying amounts of money once depending on one’s rank.
Speaking to Sudan Tribune on Tuesday in Bor, the Chairperson for Finance and Economic Planning, Deng Chuol Bei, said the bill’s success will rely on public contributions.
"This referendum is accepted by majority [of people] in Southern Sudan,” Deng Chuol said. "Whether for unity or separation, people are happy indeed that this referendum cannot fail," he responded when asked if public opinion was taken into account during the assembly’s deliberations on the bill.
The 2011 referendum in Southern Sudan on unity or separation of Sudan is in accordance with the 2005 peace accord that ended a two decades of civil war where more than 2 million people were killed. Analysts say southerners are likely to opt for independence given long period of wars and marginalization which have brought bitterness in the country.
Council of Traditional Authority Leaders not Independent: Ministry
Gurtong Trust website, Juba
17 August 2010
TORIT, 17 August 2010 (Gurtong) – Speaking yesterday in Torit at a 3-day consultative workshop of Council of Traditional Authority Leaders of Eastern Equatoria State, Famai dispelled claims by COTAL that they operate as an autonomous institution within its own jurisdiction.
“You cannot be fully autonomous when the State Ministry of Local Government and Law Enforcement Agencies exists because you operate under it. You are part of the local government only that you are extremely closest to the lowest administration of people at the grassroots”, he said.
He added that COTAL is a link and change agent between the people and the government.
“The idea of empowering you is to make a change and create uniform systems of judging societal norms for better and effective governance”, added the Director General.
He called for active cooperation among the traditional leaders adding that by so doing they are able to come up with their own bill which will from time to time safeguard and define their roles and functions as well as powers to be exercised by them.
He, however, clarified that the COTAL hold powers of mobilising resources including revenue collection to facilitate their operations.
Analysts have, however, criticised the government’s policy towards traditional leadership and have called for further adjustments to accommodate it.
They say chiefs know all the corners of their areas of jurisdiction and can efficiently reduce insecurity by apprehending perpetrators and criminals as well as resolving conflicts at the lowest levels.
They also content that traditional leaders play an instrumental role in local administration as well as revenue collection.
“Therefore, granting the traditional command authority to manage its affairs becomes of paramount importance so that available resources can be adequately mobilised and disclosed to the government. By doing so, they begin to feel ownership of governance hence improved relations. Failure to do this will continue to make local chiefs maintain their standoff and hide revenue base from the government even for hundreds of decades from now”, say the analysts.
Last week, the head of COTAL in Eastern Equatoria State Madam Magdalena Tito Ihisa lashed out at County Commissioners for alienating traditional leaders in administrative issues, even at the lowest levels.
The Eastern Equatoria State Governor Brigadier General Louis Lobong Lojore has outlined the importance of traditional leaders in his administrative policy.
The policy emphasises on devolving powers to the traditional authorities and implementing the decentralised system of governance through empowerment of the local leaders who make up the process.
The workshop was organised by the Government of Southern Sudan, the State Ministry of Local Government and Law Enforcement and the Local Government Board (LGB) with financial support from the Federal Department of Foreign Affairs of the Government of Switzerland.
The representative of the Federal Department of Foreign Affairs of the Government of Switzerland Blaise Burnier said similar workshops have been conducted in Central Equatoria and Western Equatoria states, adding that all the remaining states will be covered.
“The project known as Council of Traditional Authority Leaders (COTAL) is implemented by the Local Government Board, Government of Southern Sudan, with the support of the Federal Department of Foreign Affairs of Switzerland. It was initially known as the House of Nationalities project. Following the enactment of the Local Government Act in 2009 this name has been dropped and the project adapted to the implementation of the said Act, particularly section 119 providing for the establishment of Councils of Traditional Authority Leaders (COTAL) at the State level and eventually at Southern Sudan level”, said Burnier.
The official added that the project is now in its first phase and aims at providing a legal basis for the Council in each state of South Sudan.
“A draft Council of Traditional Authority Leaders Bill (COTAL Bill) was worked out during a workshop held in Juba in June 2010. Representatives of the Local Government Board, the Ministry of Legal Affairs, the Judiciary, as well as representatives of the State Ministry of Local Government and Law Enforcement, the Legal Administration and Traditional Authorities of each state participated in the workshop that resulted into a solid draft COTAL Bill for each State. Now, these drafts Bill are being consulted with the traditional authorities, the executive directors, the women, the elders and any other relevant stakeholder in each state during similar consultative workshop in the states”, said Burnier.
“We expect the COTAL Bill to be enacted in each state before the referendum”, said the official.
Western Bahr Al Ghazal State In Dire Need Of Medical And Education Services
Sudan Radio Service (SRS) website, Nairobi
18 August 2010
18 August 2010 - (Khartoum) – The Governor of Western Bahr Al Ghazal state says his state is in dire need of proper medical and Educational services.
Rizik Zacharia Hassan said the number of doctors in the state is insufficient to cater for the population in the state.
Speaking to Sudan Radio Service in Khartoum on Tuesday, Rizik said that the state government is working on resolving the issue.
[ Rizik Zachariah]: “We are lacking some important services in the state especially in sectors such as the health sector, for example at the moment we have only eleven doctors in the whole state who are suppose to cater medically for the whole state which has around 333,000 people according to the census that was conducted. So that in statistical terms tell us that every doctor has around 33,000citizens that he needs to look after, and that is a big challenge to us, and that is why we are currently working with the ministry of Education and trying to bring more doctors to the state”
Rizik added that the education sector in the state also faces the same challenges.
[Rizik Zachariah]: “As far as education in the state is concerned, we are also faced with similar challenges in the schools, for example there are cases where by a school will have around eight classes but there will only be around three to four teachers in the whole school. And so we have talked to the minister in charge so that to help by supporting the state ministry so that we are able to build our capacity”
Governor of Western Bahr Al Ghazal state Rizik Zacharia Hassan was speaking to SRS in Khartoum.
Unity state authorities regulate mobile phone airtime prices
Sudan Tribune website, Paris
18 August 2010
August 17, 2010 (BENTIU) — Unity state’s Minister of Information and Communication, Gideon Gatpan, has warned black marketers not to unreasonably increase the prices of mobile phone airtimes in the state.
He directed the mobile operators and electronic dealers in Unity state to maintain the prices of the scratch card as per the price tag indicated with effect from 13th August 2010. It was discovered scratch card dealers had been introducing unreasonable high prices.
He urged all airtime dealers to identify themselves with individual mobile operators, and each operator shall submit the list of dealers to his Ministry at the office of Directorate of Communication.
Unregulated retailers have decided, for instance, to increase a 5 Sudanese pounds scratch card despite that they buy it at a discounted price from dealers.
Sudan's Al-Bashir calls for creating effective mechanism to attract investments
Sudan Vision website, Khartoum
18 August 2010; 13:06 GMT
Text of report in English by Sudanese government newspaper Sudan Vision website on 18 August
The meetings of Supreme Council on Investment kicked off at the Friendship Hall yesterday chaired by President Umar Al Bashir in the presence of Vice-President Ali Uthman Muhammad Taha.
Addressing the opening session, he reiterated his government's concern about investment and investors, citing capabilities Sudan abounds in. Al Bashir said what has been achieved over the past period and what is about to be done now prepares the climate for a comprehensive work in the development of the country and boosting its economy. He cited the reports of World Bank considering them one of world standard yard sticks, which indicated improvement and development Sudan is experiencing. Al Bashir said the country is looking forward to further investments, especially in the field of food security. He called for setting up necessary arrangements and effective mechanism for attracting further investments.
The President tackled the role of the council in resources management, legislations, preparing the climate for investment, reenergizing strategic partnerships with states, expressing his hope that the meeting will come out with a comprehensive plan for investment in the Sudan.
Presidential advisor, Mustafa Uthman Ismail, the Rapportuer of Council, pointed out the conditions and challenges under which the council was convening, further citing Sudan's economic and investment progress. He added that capabilities the country enjoys require moves to improve living conditions for its citizens.
Earlier, Dr Ismail had affirmed that objective behind the formation of the Supreme Investment Council was to help the Ministry of Investment remove obstacles facing investors.
He said that the council is under the chairmanship of President of the Republic and includes in its new membership each of First Vice President, Vice President, concerned ministries such as Finance, Industry, Labour, Agriculture, Central Bank of Sudan, Businessmen Association, and states governors.
Dr. Ismail added that it is expected that the council will meet every three months to review the reports of the Investment Ministry and other concerned ministries and parties related to investment.
He said the government is giving great concern to investment and the chairmanship of the President to the council is a proof to that concern in order to avail conducive environment to investors and to attract foreign capitals.
It is to be noted that the first session of the council since its new formation started yesterday in the Friendship Hall attended by all governors besides the concerned ministries. The council will hold three sessions to discuss the papers presented over the performance of the investment council, the general investment policies, the plan for the upcoming stage, the investment problems in Sudan and the future vision.
On his part, Businessmen Association Secretary General Bakri Yusuf lauded the role of the Supreme Council on Investment calling the council to create an attractive system for new investments in the country, affirming that the council represents a real support to the Ministry of Investment.
A city shaped like a giraffe? South Sudan unveils big plans ahead of January independence vote
Associate Press Newswires
18 August 2010; 11:27 GMT
JUBA, Sudan (AP) - The government of Southern Sudan this week announced a bold $10.1 billion plan to transform the capital cities of this largely rural territory, reshaping some into the shapes of animals and fruit.
The plan unveiled Tuesday in the war-torn region comes ahead of a scheduled January referendum on independence, which most people here believe will lead to the creation of the world's newest country.
The south is rich in oil, but poverty and hunger is high throughout the region, which is struggling to recover after a civil war more than two decades long.
Government officials did not say how they would find the money to finance the project, which includes a plan to transform two state capitals into the shapes of a giraffe and a pineapple, which appear on their flags.
The plan also aims to redesign the southern capital, Juba, and the 10 state capitals, said Jemma Kumba, the minister of housing and physical planning.
"Juba is made up of slums," said Kumba.
Her undersecretary, Daniel Wani, said that planning in the sprawling capital of Juba was "haphazardly done."
As part of the plan, residents of the capital would be relocated to about 10 miles (15 kilometers) outside of Juba in an area called "Rhino City," named after the symbol on the flag of Central Equatoria state.
Wani conceded that the government still needs "a lot of money." He said the government is in discussions with investors.
The southern government's own 2010 budget was only $1.9 billion, and the U.N. says more than 90 percent of Southern Sudan's population lives on less than $1 a day.
Southern Sudan, which is still recovering from decades of war, lacks basic infrastructure such as roads that connect its state capitals. Outside the southern capital Juba, structures aside from mud huts are rare, and in Juba, services such as electricity and sewage are a luxury.
The Minister of Roads and Transport, Anthony Makana, told The Associated Press on Tuesday that he needed up to $6 billion to pave 8,000 miles (13,000 kilometers) of roads in the south.
Makana said the project would connect all of the southern state capitals, but he noted that funding is a concern, given that the government has not finished paying the contractors who built 4,350 miles (7,000 kilometers) of red clay and gravel roads since 2005, when the landmark peace accord between the north and south was signed.
Judges Of Southern Sudan completes A Ten Week Course On Civil And Criminal Laws Procedures
Sudan Radio Service (SRS) website, Nairobi
18 August 2010
18 August 2010 - (Juba) – The judges of southern Sudan have completed a ten week course on civil and criminal laws procedures in Juba on Wednesday.
The judges from all courts in the ten states of southern Sudan were trained by foreign expertise brought by the International Development Law organization in conjunction with the Judiciary of southern sudan.
Speaking to SRS during the closing ceremony, the president of the supreme court of southern Sudan, Justice John Wol Makec said that the training has empowered the judges with secular laws applicable in the region.
[Justice John Wol ]: “In this training, we invited the former chief justices and justices of supreme courts from sister-countries like Uganda, Kenya and South Africa to conduct the training here under our guidance so that we give priorities to particular topics which are necessary for our judges. We are satisfied because it is in line with our priorities. When we use to send our judges to south Africa or to East Africa, they used to be taught laws according to the priorities of those countries, and that is why we change the training to be done here in southern Sudan so that we give emphasis to our priorities.”
Judge Malek Mathiang and Omot Santino both from Central and Unity states respectively expressed their confidence to SRS.
[Malek Mathiang ]: “Actually, they were training us about our own laws such as; the criminal procedure act of 2000, civil procedure act of 2007 which are both southern Sudanese laws and those are relevant to us. This training was very beneficial because we were introduced to procedures being it civil or criminal. And all these laws if applied than the achievement of end-justice will be efficient.”
[Omot Santino]: “We have learnt a lot on things such as the law of evidence, the child act, and the CRC which stands for the child right convention. We will go and implement all these things in our areas of work. My message to the public is that this is your judiciary and you need to be confident in it because right now we are coming with a new spirit and a new vision to give you all your rights.”
The manager of the International Development Law Organization, Roelof Haveman, in southern Sudan told SRS that the training has met its expectations.
[Roelof Haveman]: “I am certain that this training was very good and it succeeded in involving the judges in all the discussions. All the judges know now exactly all the procedures. These procedures are vital for a good justice system. So we have worked for ten weeks on the procedures on civil and criminal law. The second thing which is a big improvement is the form of judgment; that now the judgments have a standard form that every judge takes. I would like to see that in five years we have a judiciary which is really capable of rendering justice to the people of southern Sudan.”
That was Roelof Haveman speaking to SRS during the graduation of the judges of southern Sudan on Wednesday in Juba.
REFERENDUM
African think-tank predicts possible "painful split" of Sudan into two countries
Sudan Tribune website
18 August 2010
August 17, 2010 (JUBA) - The most internationally recognized African think-tank, the Centre for Conflict Resolution (CCR), has warned of a possible painful split of Sudan into two independent countries. In a press release issued on Tuesday the Center for Conflict Resolution will organize a seminar in Cape Town, South Africa, on Wednesday next week to discuss the future of the country.
"As Sudan faces the prospect of possibly being split into two countries and giving painful birth to a new nation - with a referendum in South Sudan scheduled for January 2011 - world-leading scholar-diplomats on Africa's largest country will be speaking at a meeting hosted by the Centre for Conflict Resolution."
Sudanese scholar-diplomat and Special Adviser of the UN Secretary-General on the Prevention of Genocide, Professor Francis Deng, will be previewing his new book entitled, ‘Sudan at the Brink: Self-Determination and National Unity.'
The meeting, which is chaired by Ambassador James Jonah, former UN Undersecretary-General for Political Affairs, will also be addressed by Dr Jan Pronk, a former UN special representative for Sudan and former minister for development cooperation in the Netherlands, and Ambassador Richard Williamson, a former US special envoy to Sudan.
"The speakers will consider the implications of South Sudan's forthcoming self-determination vote while a host of key post-referendum issues - such as security arrangements, sharing of water assets and oil revenues, and decisions about currency and national capitals - remain unresolved," reads the press release.
Southern Sudan Not Prepared For Independence
Sudan Radio Service (SRS) website, Nairobi
18 August 2010
18 August 2010 - (Khartoum) – The Chairman of the southern Sudan Democratic Front party says that the Referendum for the south scheduled for next year may have serious implications if the system of governance in the south is not changed.
David De chand said it is too early for the south to secede given its lack of leadership capabilities.
David De Chand spoke to Sudan Radio Service in an exclusive interview on Wednesday from Khartoum.
[David De Chand]: “we are not ready to governor ourselves, unless there were to be changes. The system that we have had for the last five and a half years in southern Sudan has not prepared southern Sudanese to governing themselves; we are not capable of governing ourselves at this point in time. because one, we have been very extremely entrenched in tribalism, we lack a system of governing, we lack democratization, we lack freedom of movement, we lack all the characteristic that would make the nation be come a viable nation at the time”
David De Chand added that if the south secedes from the North there will be disintegration within the south.
[David De Chand]: “Today if southern Sudan goes as state, given the current situation in southern Sudan, the south will disintegrate itself. The south will not be united, the south will either resolve to become totally three new southern Sudan or there would be more confusion, blood shed, nobody wants more blood shed, but the best thing will be that if the current situation can not change in southern Sudan, mister Pagan Amum and his colleagues will declare the independence of the south then another person will declare independence within the independence or separation within separation because SPLM is not competed to governor southern Sudan.”
De Chand is appealing to the people of the south to come together and dialogue with one another in a bid to have one decision before the conduct of the referendum next year.
[David De Chand]: “My appeal to every southern Sudanese is that let us sit down and dialoged, SPLM alone cannot under no circumstance determine the political future of south Sudan. If they do not know that then they need to be told now for them to know. It has to contact other southern political parties within this very short period. We have to dialog meaningfully. Dialoged in order for us to come as one and make one decision. Right now we have too many decisions.”
The Chairman Of the southern Sudan Democratic Front party was speaking to SRS from Khartoum on Wednesday.
S. Sudan wants voters to return for referendum
Associated Press Newswires
18 August 2010
JUBA, Sudan: The government of Southern Sudan wants 1.5 million Southerners who fled to the country’s North during Sudan’s long civil war to return home before a crucial referendum that could split the oil-rich South from the North.
The return of so many Southern voters could help the referendum gain additional support if those Southerners are not allowed to vote while living in the North. A commission is currently deadlocked on whether to allow such votes. But a Southern official denied the plans to return Southerners are linked to the January vote and said they are motivated by humanitarian concerns.
“We’re not politicians. We’re operating on humanitarian grounds. If they come to vote for unity, we don’t care. If they come to vote for succession, we don’t care,” said the government’s director of repatriation, Arop Mathiang Amiyock.
Returning families would be directed to reception centers in towns where they would be fed and sheltered for three months, Amiyock added.
“We are looking for resources from the government and from donors. That’s why we haven’t started the project yet.”
Southern Sudan is scheduled to hold an independence referendum in January, a condition agreed upon in a 2005 peace accord that formally ended the more than two-decade-long civil war between the country’s north and south. Preparations for the referendum are running behind schedule, and officials have warned that little time remains to complete critical tasks.
Some Southerners worry that the North is too dependent on revenues generated by Southern oil to let the region become independent
Thursday, August 19, 2010
Wednesday, August 18, 2010
paulino, chairperson splm chapter, A/A Ethiopia.
Date/ August 18/2010
Yes comrade Also, I welcome the SPLM invitation. Infect, the contribution to the referendum is already started for example, we held a general meeting with all Sudanese community in Addis Ababa on July 9/2010 and the second meeting was on August 8/10, which emanated the peaceful demonstration around the African Union (AU)in Addis Ababa. Which is all slogans were about calling the referendum on time, no for war and yes for separation. The outcome of the meeting was very unique in which all the community leaders, three civil societies, these are, women leaders, youth leaders, student leaders, church leaders and the entire community have unanimously agreed to vote for separation. Therefore, we the SPLM chapter leaders have comment that, the SPLM will protect their choice when the time come or if any group ether a government or political party, SPLM shall not tolerate any agreement which might divert or change the independent of South according to the free choice of its citizens.
Our last point is that the SPLM national secretariat on external relation should organize the visit to our chapter in Ethiopia. This because of many problems the chapter faces for so many years including the legality of the chapter. We are illegal!
Thanks u
Paulino B. Lul
Chair person
Yes comrade Also, I welcome the SPLM invitation. Infect, the contribution to the referendum is already started for example, we held a general meeting with all Sudanese community in Addis Ababa on July 9/2010 and the second meeting was on August 8/10, which emanated the peaceful demonstration around the African Union (AU)in Addis Ababa. Which is all slogans were about calling the referendum on time, no for war and yes for separation. The outcome of the meeting was very unique in which all the community leaders, three civil societies, these are, women leaders, youth leaders, student leaders, church leaders and the entire community have unanimously agreed to vote for separation. Therefore, we the SPLM chapter leaders have comment that, the SPLM will protect their choice when the time come or if any group ether a government or political party, SPLM shall not tolerate any agreement which might divert or change the independent of South according to the free choice of its citizens.
Our last point is that the SPLM national secretariat on external relation should organize the visit to our chapter in Ethiopia. This because of many problems the chapter faces for so many years including the legality of the chapter. We are illegal!
Thanks u
Paulino B. Lul
Chair person
Friday, August 13, 2010
Noth South Border Debate from France-Watch Videos
Dear comrades,
It took us a great deal of time to be able to cut this video for your review. Please, watch one of my debates with the NCP live on the France 24 TV Channel. Some contents may not be clear because the video was cut several times in order to put it on the You Tube for review.
The theme was on South-North Borders Demarcation (The recent declaration made by Salah Guesh regarding the abyei’s decision, Gazi who said South referendum wouldn’t take place if borders are not completed and whether the SPLM would accept delaying the referendum)
Introduction: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PfuFPZZQCdA
Video two: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TQBzmT8fOqc
Video three: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Wu4ODl0FgwE
Video four: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=U9KZLtnCRAY
Video five: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Os5FQk2Ldlc
The original video will be sent to you when it’s possible. You can also watch other debates during the elections on our website: www.splmfrance.webnode.com
However, the SPLM France Chapter will continue to spread the problem of Southern Sudan to the French public and to the Arab World through the France 24 TV Channel the most watched by Arabic Speaking Countries and other French channels.
Santino Fardol
Paris, France
Tel: 0033-(0) 626 253 570
It took us a great deal of time to be able to cut this video for your review. Please, watch one of my debates with the NCP live on the France 24 TV Channel. Some contents may not be clear because the video was cut several times in order to put it on the You Tube for review.
The theme was on South-North Borders Demarcation (The recent declaration made by Salah Guesh regarding the abyei’s decision, Gazi who said South referendum wouldn’t take place if borders are not completed and whether the SPLM would accept delaying the referendum)
Introduction: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PfuFPZZQCdA
Video two: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TQBzmT8fOqc
Video three: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Wu4ODl0FgwE
Video four: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=U9KZLtnCRAY
Video five: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Os5FQk2Ldlc
The original video will be sent to you when it’s possible. You can also watch other debates during the elections on our website: www.splmfrance.webnode.com
However, the SPLM France Chapter will continue to spread the problem of Southern Sudan to the French public and to the Arab World through the France 24 TV Channel the most watched by Arabic Speaking Countries and other French channels.
Santino Fardol
Paris, France
Tel: 0033-(0) 626 253 570
Scenario of Sudan's Future, Revitied
Below is an interesting report on the future of Sudan, whether it is retained or the South decides to go. The pictures depicted in those scenarios are extremely gloomy, for both options. You can access the report on www.uip.org
Scenarios for Sudan’s Future,
Revisited
Summary
Many of the post-referendum scenarios in Sudan envisioned by the U.S. Institute of Peace and Clingendael Institute one year ago remain plausible today, less than six months prior to the referendum.
While recent progress on post-referendum arrangements is encouraging, a return to a North-
South civil war is possible, and there is reason to be concerned about the stability of both
states if the outcome of the referendum is secession.
As the referendum approaches, it will be important for the South to develop a stronger sense
of cohesion and common purpose given the uncertain and unprecedented environment
following the vote.
Productively engaging the opposition (armed and unarmed), incorporating marginalized
ethnic and tribal groups into power structures, decentralizing authority, more equitably sharing
resources, and refraining from supporting armed opposition against rivals are important
principles for both parties to adhere to in any recipe for peace and stability.
Sudan is less than six months away from a seminal event: the referendum on whether Southern
Sudan remains part of a united Sudan or secedes. In an e!ort to stimulate discussion of and
planning for the referendum and its aftermath, last year our two institutions—the United States
Institute of Peace and the Netherlands Institute of International Relations Clingendael—each
conducted scenario development exercises designed to describe a few (by no means all) of the
potential scenarios in Sudan surrounding the referendum. One year later, we are revisiting those
scenarios to evaluate how they have held up and which ones appear most likely given recent
developments in Sudan.
Summarizing the Scenarios
USIP summarized three scenarios in the USIP Special Report, “Scenarios for Sudan: Avoiding Political
Violence Through 2011”1:
“Muddling Through”—With concerted effort, robust international engagement, and some
progress on key issues, the parties avoid large-scale violence. This requires collaboration
and compromise between the parties on several key issues, such as oil management and
revenue sharing.
JON TEMIN
PEACE 42
Scenarios for Sudan’s Future, Revisited
“Civil War, fr om Tinderbox to Conflagration”—The failure to build trust and address key
issues between the North and South prior to the referendum results in violence after the
referendum. A single incident, especially around Abyei or the oil fields, can trigger a return
to war.
"Costly Secession”—Without a change in its current capacity to govern, the South devolves
into a downward spiral of violence, even in the absence of aggression from the North or a
loss of existing donor support. The lack of a “peace dividend” at the grassroots is especially
disruptive.
On the basis of two key questions—“Will Sudan remain united or will the South secede?” and
“Will there be a renewed war between the North and South or can it be avoided?”—the Clingendael
Institute described four scenarios in its report, “Sudan 2012: Scenarios for the Future”2:
“The Last War Revisited?” (war & united)—Southern Sudan declares itself unilaterally independent.
Khartoum uses tribal discord to manage the rebellion and is able to control an
unstable, con"ict-ridden Southern Sudan. The Government of Southern Sudan (GoSS) and
the Sudan People’s Liberation Army (SPLA) splinter as a result of Khartoum’s divide and rule
strategy.
“Border Wars” (war & secession)—The South chooses independence in the referendum. This
choice is not acceptable to Khartoum, which decides to start a military o!ensive. The South
unites in the face of a common enemy and keeps the northern forces at bay. Subsequently,
the war continues, mainly in the border region. “Comprehensive Peace Agreement (CPA) Hurray!” (no war & united)—As a result of a renewed
mediation e!ort by the international community, the peace process is rejuvenated.
The elections are won by the Sudan People Liberation Movement (SPLM) and the northern
opposition, who subsequently form a coalition with the National Congress Party (NCP). This
new government starts a process of further democratization and redistribution of power
and income, so that most marginalized groups no longer need to take up arms against
Khartoum. Moreover, the atmosphere in Southern Sudan changes and the population
regains confidence in the unity of the country. “Be Careful What You Wish For: Somalia?” (no war & secession)—Even before the South
declares independence, various groups anticipate the coming redistribution of power.
In the North, the conflicts in Darfur and other regions intensify, while the South faces an
increasing number of tribal conflicts. After the referendum, in which the South chooses independence,
the balance of power is lost. The South splinters into smaller parts controlled
by various factions, while the North also loses its coherence.
The two scenario development exercises were conducted independently, using different
methodologies and participants3, but the similarities between some of the outcomes were striking.
Each included a scenario in which secession resulted in a new state in the South that is weak and
racked by internal violence (“Costly Secession” and “Be Careful What You Wish For: Somalia?”). Each
described a possible return to a North-South civil war, with fghting concentrated around the
North-South border (“Civil War, from Tinderbox to Con"agration” and “Border Wars”).
Both exercises also left little room for optimism. The best case USIP scenario is “Muddling
Through.” The most optimistic Clingendael scenario is “CPA Hurray!,” which was assessed as
plausible but unlikely. The USIP and Clingendael exercises both emphasized that Sudan’s future is
unlikely to be free of violence and con"ict, and both highlighted the need to negotiate key post-referendum
arrangements in advance of the referendum
Scenarios for Sudan’s Future, Revisited
The main di!erence between the exercises is that none of the USIP scenarios envisioned a vote
for unity, whereas two of the Clingendael scenarios (“CPA Hurray!” and “The Last War Revisited?”)
involve unity, both voluntary and forced. The prospect of southerners voting for unity seems even
less likely now than it did one year ago; the time remaining to make unity attractive is minimal, and
the unity campaign promised by the North after the April elections is just getting o! the ground.
Two of the Clingendael scenarios and all of the USIP scenarios envisioned the referendum
occurring on time. For all the dire warnings about a return to civil war in Sudan and the gloomy
scenarios envisioned by our organizations’ reports, it is worth recognizing that the CPA remains
intact and in effect. Over the past year, several issues and events could have led to the unraveling
of the CPA, including the disputed census, contentious legislation (including the Southern Sudan
Referendum Act, the Abyei Referendum Act and the National Security Act), and the recent nationwide
elections. None of these challenges were handled by the NCP and SPLM with particular grace
or subtlety (elite bargaining between the parties remains the norm), but all were managed and
widespread violence avoided. Of course, the referendum will be the ultimate test of the parties’
ability to collaborate and avoid disaster, in part because the SPLM has compromised in other areas
while clearly signaling that they will not compromise on the referendum.
Revisiting the USIP Scenarios
All three USIP scenarios seem plausible one year later. The “Civil War” scenario may be less likely
now that some of the possible seeds of political violence identiffed in that scenario—the census,
elections and referendum legislation—are in the past. But other possible triggers—such as oil
revenue sharing, border demarcation and citizenship—remain to be negotiated, with disagreement
over oil and revenue sharing possessing the greatest potential for instigating North-South
violence.
The “Costly Secession” scenario remains worryingly possible. The USIP report identified six
factors that could trigger large-scale political violence in the South:
���� failure to distribute food, water and power and build basic infrastructure (still a concern, as
there is little tangible “peace dividend” to speak of);
inter-tribal conflict (which has generally increased over the past year, though may have
decreased in recent months);
violence in Southern Kordofan or Blue Nile states (encouragingly, there has been relatively
little in the past year);
the GoSS’s inability to disarm militias (minimal progress made and some tensions exacerbated
by disarmament efforts);
lack of decentralization of power (only limited decentralization has occurred); and
the North’s failure to lend assistance to avoid violence in the South (there is no reason to
believe the North has worked to deter violence in the South).
All six factors still have the potential to destabilize the South.
Encouragingly, the “Muddling Through” scenario may be more likely now than one year ago. The
report identified five ingredients to building the confidence and stability essential to this scenario:
compromise on the census (which has occurred);
acceptance of election and referendum results (election results were not wholly accepted
but contestations have been muted; acceptance of the referendum results remains a massive
factor);
Scenarios for Sudan’s Future, Revisited
developing a shared vision of the future (little progress, though negotiations on post-referendum
arrangements may help);
reaching a negotiated settlement or other resolution concerning the status of the three areas
(the Permanent Court of Arbitration verdict on Abyei was largely accepted and legislation
governing the Abyei referendum and Popular Consultation processes passed, but how
those processes play out remains hugely in"uential); and
Darfur does not become a source of escalating violence (sadly violence has increased
signi#cantly in recent months).
That the “Muddling Through” scenario may be slightly more likely to occur than the other
scenarios is cause for cautious optimism.
Revisiting the Clingendael Scenarios
The two key questions in the Clingendael scenarios—whether the country remains one or the
South secedes, and whether there will be a return to war—remain relevant. Looking at the four
scenarios, all but one remain plausible.
If war cannot be avoided, the relative strength of the South and North, to a large extent,
determines whether “Border Wars” or “The Last War Revisited?” is more likely. If both parties remain
coherent and themselves in a relative power balance, the former scenario becomes more
likely. If the North has the upper hand and the South is unable to remain united, the latter scenario
becomes more likely.
The precondition for the “CPA Hurray!” scenario was free, fair and uncontested elections. This
condition was not met, making this the one scenario which is no longer plausible. In the original
report, however, an alternative scenario involving unity and no return to war was suggested: “Stagnation.”
In this scenario, elites in Khartoum and Juba have little to gain from a change in the status
quo and cooperate with each other. Sudanese and international actors carry on, continuing to
hold Sudan together and address problems in an ad hoc manner. Although the country is formally
still united, in the North, certain areas, such as Darfur, continue to rebel against Khartoum, while in
the South, marginalized areas increasingly resist and push back against Juba. Essentially, “Stagnation”
is not very di!erent from “Be Careful What You Wish For: Somalia?” Paradoxically, because
progress has been made over the past year towards a peaceful referendum and possible secession,
this latter scenario becomes more likely. This underlines the need to confront the formidable task
of managing internal con"icts in both the North and South.
Going Forward
It is late in coming, but there has been some encouraging recent progress in addressing a main
concern raised in the USIP and Clingendael reports regarding post-referendum arrangements. For
example, the NCP and SPLM signed a memorandum of understanding in late June that outlines
the structure of negotiations over post-referendum arrangements that began in July. They will
need to progress quickly, however, as the window for negotiations will be open for probably only
three or four months until the hype surrounding the referendum takes hold. The top of the list of
issues to be negotiated should be post-referendum oil sector management and revenue sharing.
Both reports emphasized the potential for increased South-South and North-North violence.
In addition to negotiating post-referendum arrangements, both the North and South need to
develop strategies to productively engage the opposition (armed and unarmed) and incorporate
marginalized ethnic and tribal groups into power structures, while decentralizing authority and
ABOUT THIS BRIEF
more equitably sharing resources. Both parties also need to refrain from supporting armed opposition
against each other. Strategies that pursue a union of the marginalized against Khartoum or a
divide and rule approach in the South have a good chance of back#ring and creating an uncontrollable
chaos.
Finally, the Southern leadership needs to develop a strategy for generating a stronger, broader
sense of cohesion and common purpose across the South. Much of what uni#es the South today
is the perceived common enemy in the North and the promise held by the referendum. Whether
the referendum results in secession or continuation of the CPA-style of governance featuring a
semi-autonomous GoSS, now is the time for an inclusive dialogue on the bonds that can be the
basis for stronger Southern cohesion.
Endnotes
1. http://www.usip.org/resources/scenarios-sudan-avoiding-political-violence-through-2011
2. http://www.clingendael.nl/cscp/publications/?id=7626
3. The USIP exercise involved Sudan experts outside of Sudan, while the Clingendael workshops
were conducted in Sudan with Sudanese.
Scenarios for Sudan’s Future, Revisited
Scenarios for Sudan’s Future,
Revisited
Summary
Many of the post-referendum scenarios in Sudan envisioned by the U.S. Institute of Peace and Clingendael Institute one year ago remain plausible today, less than six months prior to the referendum.
While recent progress on post-referendum arrangements is encouraging, a return to a North-
South civil war is possible, and there is reason to be concerned about the stability of both
states if the outcome of the referendum is secession.
As the referendum approaches, it will be important for the South to develop a stronger sense
of cohesion and common purpose given the uncertain and unprecedented environment
following the vote.
Productively engaging the opposition (armed and unarmed), incorporating marginalized
ethnic and tribal groups into power structures, decentralizing authority, more equitably sharing
resources, and refraining from supporting armed opposition against rivals are important
principles for both parties to adhere to in any recipe for peace and stability.
Sudan is less than six months away from a seminal event: the referendum on whether Southern
Sudan remains part of a united Sudan or secedes. In an e!ort to stimulate discussion of and
planning for the referendum and its aftermath, last year our two institutions—the United States
Institute of Peace and the Netherlands Institute of International Relations Clingendael—each
conducted scenario development exercises designed to describe a few (by no means all) of the
potential scenarios in Sudan surrounding the referendum. One year later, we are revisiting those
scenarios to evaluate how they have held up and which ones appear most likely given recent
developments in Sudan.
Summarizing the Scenarios
USIP summarized three scenarios in the USIP Special Report, “Scenarios for Sudan: Avoiding Political
Violence Through 2011”1:
“Muddling Through”—With concerted effort, robust international engagement, and some
progress on key issues, the parties avoid large-scale violence. This requires collaboration
and compromise between the parties on several key issues, such as oil management and
revenue sharing.
JON TEMIN
PEACE 42
Scenarios for Sudan’s Future, Revisited
“Civil War, fr om Tinderbox to Conflagration”—The failure to build trust and address key
issues between the North and South prior to the referendum results in violence after the
referendum. A single incident, especially around Abyei or the oil fields, can trigger a return
to war.
"Costly Secession”—Without a change in its current capacity to govern, the South devolves
into a downward spiral of violence, even in the absence of aggression from the North or a
loss of existing donor support. The lack of a “peace dividend” at the grassroots is especially
disruptive.
On the basis of two key questions—“Will Sudan remain united or will the South secede?” and
“Will there be a renewed war between the North and South or can it be avoided?”—the Clingendael
Institute described four scenarios in its report, “Sudan 2012: Scenarios for the Future”2:
“The Last War Revisited?” (war & united)—Southern Sudan declares itself unilaterally independent.
Khartoum uses tribal discord to manage the rebellion and is able to control an
unstable, con"ict-ridden Southern Sudan. The Government of Southern Sudan (GoSS) and
the Sudan People’s Liberation Army (SPLA) splinter as a result of Khartoum’s divide and rule
strategy.
“Border Wars” (war & secession)—The South chooses independence in the referendum. This
choice is not acceptable to Khartoum, which decides to start a military o!ensive. The South
unites in the face of a common enemy and keeps the northern forces at bay. Subsequently,
the war continues, mainly in the border region. “Comprehensive Peace Agreement (CPA) Hurray!” (no war & united)—As a result of a renewed
mediation e!ort by the international community, the peace process is rejuvenated.
The elections are won by the Sudan People Liberation Movement (SPLM) and the northern
opposition, who subsequently form a coalition with the National Congress Party (NCP). This
new government starts a process of further democratization and redistribution of power
and income, so that most marginalized groups no longer need to take up arms against
Khartoum. Moreover, the atmosphere in Southern Sudan changes and the population
regains confidence in the unity of the country. “Be Careful What You Wish For: Somalia?” (no war & secession)—Even before the South
declares independence, various groups anticipate the coming redistribution of power.
In the North, the conflicts in Darfur and other regions intensify, while the South faces an
increasing number of tribal conflicts. After the referendum, in which the South chooses independence,
the balance of power is lost. The South splinters into smaller parts controlled
by various factions, while the North also loses its coherence.
The two scenario development exercises were conducted independently, using different
methodologies and participants3, but the similarities between some of the outcomes were striking.
Each included a scenario in which secession resulted in a new state in the South that is weak and
racked by internal violence (“Costly Secession” and “Be Careful What You Wish For: Somalia?”). Each
described a possible return to a North-South civil war, with fghting concentrated around the
North-South border (“Civil War, from Tinderbox to Con"agration” and “Border Wars”).
Both exercises also left little room for optimism. The best case USIP scenario is “Muddling
Through.” The most optimistic Clingendael scenario is “CPA Hurray!,” which was assessed as
plausible but unlikely. The USIP and Clingendael exercises both emphasized that Sudan’s future is
unlikely to be free of violence and con"ict, and both highlighted the need to negotiate key post-referendum
arrangements in advance of the referendum
Scenarios for Sudan’s Future, Revisited
The main di!erence between the exercises is that none of the USIP scenarios envisioned a vote
for unity, whereas two of the Clingendael scenarios (“CPA Hurray!” and “The Last War Revisited?”)
involve unity, both voluntary and forced. The prospect of southerners voting for unity seems even
less likely now than it did one year ago; the time remaining to make unity attractive is minimal, and
the unity campaign promised by the North after the April elections is just getting o! the ground.
Two of the Clingendael scenarios and all of the USIP scenarios envisioned the referendum
occurring on time. For all the dire warnings about a return to civil war in Sudan and the gloomy
scenarios envisioned by our organizations’ reports, it is worth recognizing that the CPA remains
intact and in effect. Over the past year, several issues and events could have led to the unraveling
of the CPA, including the disputed census, contentious legislation (including the Southern Sudan
Referendum Act, the Abyei Referendum Act and the National Security Act), and the recent nationwide
elections. None of these challenges were handled by the NCP and SPLM with particular grace
or subtlety (elite bargaining between the parties remains the norm), but all were managed and
widespread violence avoided. Of course, the referendum will be the ultimate test of the parties’
ability to collaborate and avoid disaster, in part because the SPLM has compromised in other areas
while clearly signaling that they will not compromise on the referendum.
Revisiting the USIP Scenarios
All three USIP scenarios seem plausible one year later. The “Civil War” scenario may be less likely
now that some of the possible seeds of political violence identiffed in that scenario—the census,
elections and referendum legislation—are in the past. But other possible triggers—such as oil
revenue sharing, border demarcation and citizenship—remain to be negotiated, with disagreement
over oil and revenue sharing possessing the greatest potential for instigating North-South
violence.
The “Costly Secession” scenario remains worryingly possible. The USIP report identified six
factors that could trigger large-scale political violence in the South:
���� failure to distribute food, water and power and build basic infrastructure (still a concern, as
there is little tangible “peace dividend” to speak of);
inter-tribal conflict (which has generally increased over the past year, though may have
decreased in recent months);
violence in Southern Kordofan or Blue Nile states (encouragingly, there has been relatively
little in the past year);
the GoSS’s inability to disarm militias (minimal progress made and some tensions exacerbated
by disarmament efforts);
lack of decentralization of power (only limited decentralization has occurred); and
the North’s failure to lend assistance to avoid violence in the South (there is no reason to
believe the North has worked to deter violence in the South).
All six factors still have the potential to destabilize the South.
Encouragingly, the “Muddling Through” scenario may be more likely now than one year ago. The
report identified five ingredients to building the confidence and stability essential to this scenario:
compromise on the census (which has occurred);
acceptance of election and referendum results (election results were not wholly accepted
but contestations have been muted; acceptance of the referendum results remains a massive
factor);
Scenarios for Sudan’s Future, Revisited
developing a shared vision of the future (little progress, though negotiations on post-referendum
arrangements may help);
reaching a negotiated settlement or other resolution concerning the status of the three areas
(the Permanent Court of Arbitration verdict on Abyei was largely accepted and legislation
governing the Abyei referendum and Popular Consultation processes passed, but how
those processes play out remains hugely in"uential); and
Darfur does not become a source of escalating violence (sadly violence has increased
signi#cantly in recent months).
That the “Muddling Through” scenario may be slightly more likely to occur than the other
scenarios is cause for cautious optimism.
Revisiting the Clingendael Scenarios
The two key questions in the Clingendael scenarios—whether the country remains one or the
South secedes, and whether there will be a return to war—remain relevant. Looking at the four
scenarios, all but one remain plausible.
If war cannot be avoided, the relative strength of the South and North, to a large extent,
determines whether “Border Wars” or “The Last War Revisited?” is more likely. If both parties remain
coherent and themselves in a relative power balance, the former scenario becomes more
likely. If the North has the upper hand and the South is unable to remain united, the latter scenario
becomes more likely.
The precondition for the “CPA Hurray!” scenario was free, fair and uncontested elections. This
condition was not met, making this the one scenario which is no longer plausible. In the original
report, however, an alternative scenario involving unity and no return to war was suggested: “Stagnation.”
In this scenario, elites in Khartoum and Juba have little to gain from a change in the status
quo and cooperate with each other. Sudanese and international actors carry on, continuing to
hold Sudan together and address problems in an ad hoc manner. Although the country is formally
still united, in the North, certain areas, such as Darfur, continue to rebel against Khartoum, while in
the South, marginalized areas increasingly resist and push back against Juba. Essentially, “Stagnation”
is not very di!erent from “Be Careful What You Wish For: Somalia?” Paradoxically, because
progress has been made over the past year towards a peaceful referendum and possible secession,
this latter scenario becomes more likely. This underlines the need to confront the formidable task
of managing internal con"icts in both the North and South.
Going Forward
It is late in coming, but there has been some encouraging recent progress in addressing a main
concern raised in the USIP and Clingendael reports regarding post-referendum arrangements. For
example, the NCP and SPLM signed a memorandum of understanding in late June that outlines
the structure of negotiations over post-referendum arrangements that began in July. They will
need to progress quickly, however, as the window for negotiations will be open for probably only
three or four months until the hype surrounding the referendum takes hold. The top of the list of
issues to be negotiated should be post-referendum oil sector management and revenue sharing.
Both reports emphasized the potential for increased South-South and North-North violence.
In addition to negotiating post-referendum arrangements, both the North and South need to
develop strategies to productively engage the opposition (armed and unarmed) and incorporate
marginalized ethnic and tribal groups into power structures, while decentralizing authority and
ABOUT THIS BRIEF
more equitably sharing resources. Both parties also need to refrain from supporting armed opposition
against each other. Strategies that pursue a union of the marginalized against Khartoum or a
divide and rule approach in the South have a good chance of back#ring and creating an uncontrollable
chaos.
Finally, the Southern leadership needs to develop a strategy for generating a stronger, broader
sense of cohesion and common purpose across the South. Much of what uni#es the South today
is the perceived common enemy in the North and the promise held by the referendum. Whether
the referendum results in secession or continuation of the CPA-style of governance featuring a
semi-autonomous GoSS, now is the time for an inclusive dialogue on the bonds that can be the
basis for stronger Southern cohesion.
Endnotes
1. http://www.usip.org/resources/scenarios-sudan-avoiding-political-violence-through-2011
2. http://www.clingendael.nl/cscp/publications/?id=7626
3. The USIP exercise involved Sudan experts outside of Sudan, while the Clingendael workshops
were conducted in Sudan with Sudanese.
Scenarios for Sudan’s Future, Revisited
Referendum Watch is now Sudan Referendum Watch
Dear everyone!
For technical reasons, Referendum Watch had to be abandoned and we have to shift to this blogger. Sorry about this. Now all the members can now use this Blogger as a means of keeping track of the Southern Sudan and Abyei Referenda and the Popular Consultation for Southern Kordofan and Southern Blue Nile States.
Regards
manager
For technical reasons, Referendum Watch had to be abandoned and we have to shift to this blogger. Sorry about this. Now all the members can now use this Blogger as a means of keeping track of the Southern Sudan and Abyei Referenda and the Popular Consultation for Southern Kordofan and Southern Blue Nile States.
Regards
manager
Referendum Update 13/08/201
South Sudan Official Warns People Not Ready For January Vote
Peter Clottey 10 August 2010
The chief coordinator for the International Campaign Countdown to South Sudan’s referendum has expressed concerns about what he described as the referendum commission’s ill-preparedness to organize the scheduled January 9 vote.
Ambassador John Andruga Duku, south Sudan’s former envoy, says there are reasons to believe that Sudan’s ruling National Congress Party (NCP) is undermining the referendum commission’s effort to organize next year’s referendum.
“We need a robust civic education to prepare the population to understand what they needed to do in this referendum. Because the referendum in south Sudan is a matter of life and death for the people of south Sudan, there is no second chance,” he said.
Analysts say the referendum commission seems to be running out of time to carry out civic educational campaigns ahead of the referendum.
Officials of the Sudan People’s Liberation Movement (SPLM) have accused the NCP of a calculated ploy to undermine the upcoming referendum - a charge the ruling party denies.
AFP
Salva Kiir (L) VP and President of South-Sudan in Nairobi (File)
An official of the referendum commission recently called for a possible postponement of the January vote saying there wasn’t enough time to organize the referendum.
But, Ambassador Duku called on the international community to put more pressure on President Omar Hassan al-Bashir and his ruling NCP to guarantee the referendum is not derailed.
“We also appeal to the international community to release the necessary resources required. We are very grateful to the United States of America for pledging $60 million for this process. But, this money remains just a figure. It is not filtering down to the people on the ground to do the actual work,” Ambassador Duku said.
As part of the 2005 Comprehensive Peace Agreement signed between President Bashir’s government and the SPLM, the NCP will appoint the chairman of the referendum commission leaving the SPLM to appoint the general secretary.
But, Ambassador Duku said the NCP reneged on the agreement after appointing both the chairman, as well as the general secretary of the commission to the chagrin of the SPLM.
Senior officials of the NCP have insisted that the ruling party is committed to the full implementation of the rest of the provisions of the CPA.
End
FACTBOX-Obstacles to south Sudan's vote on independence
Reuters News
12 August 2010; 12:51 GMT
KHARTOUM, Aug 12 (Reuters) - Southern Sudanese are due to vote on whether to become Africa's newest nation state in less than five months, but a growing mountain of unsolved problems has raised doubts about the planned referendum.
The Jan. 9, 2011 plebiscite is the climax of a 2005 peace deal between the former southern rebel Sudan People's Liberation Movement (SPLM) and the ruling National Congress Party (NCP), ending Africa's longest civil war. The accord was supposed to ensure democratic transformation in Sudan.
Here are some of the issues which need to be resolved ahead of the vote.
BORDER
The northern NCP says there can be no referendum without demarcating the disputed north-south border, along which most of Sudan's oil wealth lies. The SPLM says the NCP has deliberately delayed border demarcation, due to have been completed by July 2005, and says the referendum is not conditional upon border agreement. Many fear this could spark a conflict if the south secedes -- as most believe it will. Neighbours Ethiopia and Eritrea fought a war over a tiny town of little economic significance. Sudan's estimated 6 billion barrels of crude reserves is a much larger prize.
DELAYS
The north-south partners in peace have bickered over implementing almost every part of the deal, and the South Sudan Referendum Commission was no exception. It was supposed to have been created in 2008 but was only announced at the end of June. That left the nine-member body just six months to arrange the complex vote which involves a separate registration process, supposed by law to have begun last month.
COMMISSION DISPUTES
The SPLM says the commission is deadlocked, unable to make key decisions like choosing a secretary-general to manage the budget. If the dispute over the post is not resolved within weeks, many fear time will have run out for the process. The commission has no office yet, and decisions on registration and voting papers have not been made. They will need to be printed and delivered from abroad and distributed to remote areas of south Sudan blocked by rains or lacking roads, adding to delays.
ABYEI REFERENDUM
The south Sudan referendum is meant to be held at the same time as a plebsicite in the disputed central oil-producing region of Abyei on whether to join the south or north. However the north-south partners have failed to agree on members of this referendum commission and are deadlocked. A ruling by the Hague-based Permanent Court for Arbitration on Abyei's borders has not been demarcated following threats by the nomadic Arab Missiriya in the north. The SPLM says the NCP is settling thousands of Missiriya in northern Abyei to influence the vote. The NCP denies this. But it is looking less likely this vote can happen alongside the southern referendum.
WHO CAN VOTE?
The law defining who can vote is so complex that even legal experts find it difficult to interpret. Few southern Sudanese are aware of whether they will be able to vote or where. Millions of southerners who live in the north or abroad should be eligible to vote but may not know it. Given the ethnic nature of registration, disputes about who is a southerner and eligible to vote are inevitable. After centuries of inter-marriage, many Sudanese who consider themselves northerners could well be eligible to vote as they have a southern grandparent.
SECURITY
A rise in tribal clashes in the heavily-armed south, mostly over cattle raids or ethnic rivalries, has raised concerns that many people may be unable to vote unless the SPLM-dominated south Sudan government can improve security outside main towns. The police lacks capacity to secure the south and the south Sudan army is still in transition from guerrillas into a regular force. Discipline is a problem. During April elections, the army was accused of intimidating voters and at times taking over counting or entire voting centres. Such actions could seriously affect the credibility of the sensitive referendum.
End
South Sudan referendum at risk over commission standoff says SPLM
Sudan Tribune website, Paris
13 August 2010
13 August, 2010 (KHARTOUM) – The standoff between north and south Sudan over the appointment of a secretary-general to the commission tasked with organizing South Sudan’s referendum on independence from the north is threatening to derail preparations for the poll, according to secretary-general of the SPLM who govern south Sudan.
The referendum on southern independence is the linchpin of a 2005 peace deal between the SPLM and the NCP, which ended over two-decades of civil war. In the deal, known as the Comprehensive Peace Agreement, the former enemies agreed to share power and grant autonomous rule to the south governed by the SPLM. Implementing the deal has been characterized by constant bickering and mutual distrust. The deal is due to end in January 2011, with referendum on southern self determination.
Pagan Amum, the secretary-general of the SPLM, said yesterday that process had been paralyzed by failure for the two sides to agree on who should head the referendum commission.
"The referendum commission clearly seems to have reached a deadlock in the process of selection of the secretary-general. The commission is now paralyzed, it is not working," Reuters quoted Amum as saying.
Amum warned that failure to overcome this obstacle within the coming two weeks means that the referendum “will meet its demise.”
The senior SPLM official expressed his concern over the comments of Tarek Osman Al-Tahir, a member of the referendum commission who on 9 August suggested that the poll be delayed to complete the necessary pre-referendum procedures.
"I am afraid there may be elements within the referendum commission that are actually planning a postponement, or in the worst case a total betrayal [of the right] to be exercised by the people of southern Sudan," AFP reported Amun as saying.
Although it was scheduled to be formed at the beginning of 2010, as per the CPA, the commission, which is responsible for running the referendum, was only appointed in June.
Explaining why a delay to the referendum is not an option for the south, Amum told Reuters, "the hopes and expectations of the people of south Sudan are so pinned on that date that it would be dangerous to postpone it because the level of frustration and disappointment would be so high for anybody to manage."
In an address to a rally held in Egypt four days ago, Pagan said he expected southerners would vote overwhelmingly in favor of secession, attributing this to “the failure in defining Sudan as an Arab Islamic state.”
Before the CPA, the NCP attempted to rule the whole of Sudan, including the mainly Christian south, under Islamic Shari’a Law.
“This error”, he said, “is what led the Sudanese state to war with all those who found themselves outside the purview of that definition.”
Appointing the commission’s secretary-general is not the only stumbling block for the referendum. The two partners have also failed to agree the demarcation of north-south border, which is made more controversial as Sudan’s main oil fields are located in the border area.
Most fields lie in the south and in the oil rich region of Abyei, whose residents are due to hold a simultaneous referendum on whether to join the south or the north.
Preparations for Abyei’s poll have also stalled along border demarcation disputes.
A UN source told Sudan Tribune on condition of anonymity earlier this week that the issues of Abyei’s referendum could be largely resolved if greater resources where applied by the UN Mission in Sudan (UNMIS) due its relatively small scale in comparison to the south.
Conducting the southern referendum considering the current deadlock and remaining timescale would be more of a challenge the source said as 64 additional UN sites have to be established in southern Sudan.
UNMIS is mandated to support the referendum whenever the SPLM and NCP agree to hold it, they said.
As it stands UNMIS is expected to bring in 600 additional staff to assist the two referenda.
According to the source, this could increase to 800 (as well as increasing the number of helicopters and vehicles needed) if issues such as appointing the southern referendum commissioner are not resolved in the next two weeks.
The referendum is expected to cost $100 million, with $60 million from the UN, $20 million from the Sudanese government and the last $20 million from bilateral donors such as the US, Canadian and Dutch governments the source said.
UN Development Program ‘basket fund’ for the referendum has already received over $25 million.
End
Unfinished Report On Mineral-rich Kafia Kini
Dear All,
An unedited draft of a forthcoming report from the Rift Valley
Institute (RVI) on Kafia Kingi, written by Edward Thomas, was
circulated in error earlier this week under the title "Between Darfur
and the South". Please do not quote this draft report or circulate it
further.
Thanks to all for your understanding.
From the RVI :
The finished version will be published and circulated in October, with
a related report by Douglas Johnson, "When Boundaries Become Borders",
covering the peoples of Sudan's north-south boundary zone (and areas
on Southern Sudan's international borders). The two titles are the
first volumes in the RVI's Contested Borderlands series. To join the
circulation list for these and other RVI publications, please write to
institute@riftvalley.net.
SUDAN: Thousands struggle to survive as Kalma aid cutoff
NAIROBI, 12 August 2010 (IRIN) - Humanitarian access to Kalma, the
largest settlement for internally displaced persons (IDPs) in Sudan's
Southern Darfur State remains cut off ten days after the government
blocked UN agencies and the last five NGOs still operating in the camp
from distributing food and medical aid to an estimated 82,000 IDPs.
Tensions in Kalma rose on 25 July, at the conclusion of the latest
round of peace talks in Doha, Qatar, with some IDPs claiming they were
not fully represented at the talks. Protests inside the camp pitted
those against the negotiations, belonging mostly to the Sudan
Liberation Movement (SLM) of Abdul-Wahid Mohamed Nur, and those
supporting it.
As a result of the unrest, six people, five men and a woman - all
IDPs representatives in the camp and opponents of the peace talks -
sought protection inside the premises of a community policing centre
(CPC) of the joint UN-AU Mission in Darfur peacekeeping force
(UNAMID).
On 2 August, while banning aid agencies from accessing the camp,
motivating the decision with the internationals' inability of
maintaining security inside the camp government, officials in South
Darfur also asked UNAMID to hand over the six people, suspected of
taking part in clashes.
At a press conference held in Khartoum at the beginning of this week,
the Governor of South Darfur State, Abdel Hamid Musa Kasha, disclosed
the government's intention to remove Kalma camp described as military
base and political platform for Abdel Wahid Al-Nur.
Yesterday, in a meeting held in Nyala, capital of South Darfur,
between the Joint UN-African Union Special Representative for Darfur,
Ibrahim Gambari, and Sudan Government Officials, GOS raised the issue
of joint patrols with UNAMID forces but no conclusion was yet reached
- Senior UNAMID Officials told IRIN.
Residents of Kalma camp had been resisting the presence of Sudanese
police inside the camp for the past six years. After the police tried
to enter the camp leaving 32 IDPs dead in August 2008, UNAMID
established policing center and organized patrols around the
settlements to protect its residents from nocturnal attacks by
militias.
Thousands without food, water and medicine
According to Samuel Hendricks, the spokesperson for the UN Office for
Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA) in Darfur, supplies of
drugs and medicine would need to be assessed to estimate how long they
can last but lack of food was already a major concern.
"The last food distribution would have been at the beginning of July.
Blanket feeding for children under five was scheduled to start at the
beginning of August, and General Food Distribution [GFD] this week,
but it all have been prevented by lack of access to the settlement"
Hendricks told IRIN.
Following the expulsion of 13 NGOs from Darfur in March 2009, Kalma
residents went for three months without food distribution.
"Obviously we would like to avoid a similar scenario," Hendricks said.
As no official population census was carried out in 2009 in any of
the IDP settlements in the Southern Darfur State (Kalma, Otash,
As-Salaam, Mershing, Al-Serif, Beleil, Al-Sheref, Um Lubassa, Mossei,
Sekele), no one really knows for certain how many people are in Kalma
camp. (link to: Sudan census and IDP camps/Kalma).
However, UN World Food Programme (WFP) sources said at least 82,000
people have been living the camp since 2003, having fled attacks by
Sudanese forces and proxy militia.
Details and data about the scale and scope of the humanitarian and
human rights crisis inside Kalma are difficult to assess as
journalists and independent observers have been denied access since
March 2009, and well before on many occasions.
Susannah Syrkin, the deputy director of Physicians for Human Rights,
US based organization promoting the monitoring of health-related human
rights, told IRIN she was concerned about the sanitation and hygiene
situation in Kalma as the camp is located in a natural declivity.
During the rainy season, she said, there is a serious drainage
problem.
The camp has 20 motorized water pumps and 28 hand-held pumps, with a
total delivery capacity of 1,700 m3 per day. The blockade imposed by
the government has also caused of lack of fuel for motorized pumps,
and as the UN Children's Fund (UNICEF) confirmed, fuel supplies ran
out on 7 August.
Syrkin told IRIN that in 2009, when Kalma residents refused aid from
the government to protest the expulsion of international aid agencies,
there was not enough fuel for the main motorized water pumps, forcing
residents to resort to using the "few dozen" hand pumps available and
the nearby polluted river for their water supply.
Cp/[END]
CLICK ON LINK BELOW TO READ THE REPORT ONLINE
Http://www.irinnews.org/report.aspx?ReportID=90149
Upcoming referenda "real tests" for Abyei people, southern Sudanese - commentary
Juba Post, Khartoum
12 August 2010; 09:59 GMT
Text of report in English by privately-owned Sudanese newspaper Juba Post on 12 August
JUBA - Southern Sudanese! What descriptive words are used to label black Sudanese in the context of a unitary Sudan? Black Sudanese are people whose national identities are either uncertain or engulfed by the Arab Sudanese identity. This is because Sudan, as a sovereign state, is erroneously identified as an Arab world country and an Islamic state.
In which case, black Sudanese identities are lost in the above two identity descriptions of the Sudan. Black Sudanese ethnic as well as religious identities are hence lost. This sad fact has long relegated black Sudanese as "second class citizens" in the land supposedly known as "Bilad as-Sud" which means the land of the blacks. This is a very sad reality of the black Sudanese situation in the country.
The more often used descriptive words to belittle the black Sudanese are: Black Sudanese are the "abid" slaves of the red Arab Sudanese. That is, they are the ones who do most of the dirty jobs in the country ranging from domestic to public.
Such jobs include but are not limited to cleaning, laundry, barrow pushing, night and day guarding and carrying goods on their heads whereas the red Arab Sudanese are well ensconced in luxury, wield absolute powers and resources and maintain undue control over all white collar jobs - a situation that has permanently pushed the black Sudanese to live on political, economic and social margins as refugees and, or displaced persons in their own country.
How do the January 2011 referenda fit in this situational context? The Southern Sudanese, or black Sudanese, must wake up to the crucial referenda call. The January 2011 referenda are "real tests" of whether Southern Sudanese and [oil-rich region of] Abyei people are bonafide Sudanese with featuring national identities and of whether they are ready to continue to live under the cover of Arab-Islamic identities.
The referenda will also determine whether or not Southern Sudanese are comfortable with their relegated status as second class citizens in their own country and whether they are happy being enslaved in their own land.
Willing to break the dirty cycle of enslavement, oppression and marginalization to create a "clean land of freedom" for the Southern Sudanese to live in dignity, walk with their heads up and manage their own political, economic, social, cultural and territorial affairs will also be tested during the forthcoming referenda.
Southerners! The countdown to the referendum leaves no room for ambivalence and, or indecisiveness. The decision and choice are yours. Decide now or else live to regret indefinitely.
As you read this article, consider changing your political stance for the upcoming referenda. Unity of Sudan has long lost sweetness, taste and everything good that you can think about. Separation is now the healing, rejuvenating and joy rendering option.
How can you continue to live with people who have robbed you of your God-given dignity, destroyed your happiness and made life miserable for your ancestors, for you and [who] are determined to make it even worse for your children and future generations if they manage to get your heads in the pot of "yes" for unity.
Ramadan in Sudan: Restaurants to stay open in Khartoum
Thursday, August 12, 2010
HE chairman of the non-Muslim commission in Khartoum, Joshua Dau, has affirmed continuity of the last year's deal between the commission and the localities, which stipulates opening all restaurants in Khartoum to give non-Muslims and those who are unable to fast a chance of having their meals during Ramadan.
Source: Miraya FM - Thursday, 12 August 2010 02:50
Peter Clottey 10 August 2010
The chief coordinator for the International Campaign Countdown to South Sudan’s referendum has expressed concerns about what he described as the referendum commission’s ill-preparedness to organize the scheduled January 9 vote.
Ambassador John Andruga Duku, south Sudan’s former envoy, says there are reasons to believe that Sudan’s ruling National Congress Party (NCP) is undermining the referendum commission’s effort to organize next year’s referendum.
“We need a robust civic education to prepare the population to understand what they needed to do in this referendum. Because the referendum in south Sudan is a matter of life and death for the people of south Sudan, there is no second chance,” he said.
Analysts say the referendum commission seems to be running out of time to carry out civic educational campaigns ahead of the referendum.
Officials of the Sudan People’s Liberation Movement (SPLM) have accused the NCP of a calculated ploy to undermine the upcoming referendum - a charge the ruling party denies.
AFP
Salva Kiir (L) VP and President of South-Sudan in Nairobi (File)
An official of the referendum commission recently called for a possible postponement of the January vote saying there wasn’t enough time to organize the referendum.
But, Ambassador Duku called on the international community to put more pressure on President Omar Hassan al-Bashir and his ruling NCP to guarantee the referendum is not derailed.
“We also appeal to the international community to release the necessary resources required. We are very grateful to the United States of America for pledging $60 million for this process. But, this money remains just a figure. It is not filtering down to the people on the ground to do the actual work,” Ambassador Duku said.
As part of the 2005 Comprehensive Peace Agreement signed between President Bashir’s government and the SPLM, the NCP will appoint the chairman of the referendum commission leaving the SPLM to appoint the general secretary.
But, Ambassador Duku said the NCP reneged on the agreement after appointing both the chairman, as well as the general secretary of the commission to the chagrin of the SPLM.
Senior officials of the NCP have insisted that the ruling party is committed to the full implementation of the rest of the provisions of the CPA.
End
FACTBOX-Obstacles to south Sudan's vote on independence
Reuters News
12 August 2010; 12:51 GMT
KHARTOUM, Aug 12 (Reuters) - Southern Sudanese are due to vote on whether to become Africa's newest nation state in less than five months, but a growing mountain of unsolved problems has raised doubts about the planned referendum.
The Jan. 9, 2011 plebiscite is the climax of a 2005 peace deal between the former southern rebel Sudan People's Liberation Movement (SPLM) and the ruling National Congress Party (NCP), ending Africa's longest civil war. The accord was supposed to ensure democratic transformation in Sudan.
Here are some of the issues which need to be resolved ahead of the vote.
BORDER
The northern NCP says there can be no referendum without demarcating the disputed north-south border, along which most of Sudan's oil wealth lies. The SPLM says the NCP has deliberately delayed border demarcation, due to have been completed by July 2005, and says the referendum is not conditional upon border agreement. Many fear this could spark a conflict if the south secedes -- as most believe it will. Neighbours Ethiopia and Eritrea fought a war over a tiny town of little economic significance. Sudan's estimated 6 billion barrels of crude reserves is a much larger prize.
DELAYS
The north-south partners in peace have bickered over implementing almost every part of the deal, and the South Sudan Referendum Commission was no exception. It was supposed to have been created in 2008 but was only announced at the end of June. That left the nine-member body just six months to arrange the complex vote which involves a separate registration process, supposed by law to have begun last month.
COMMISSION DISPUTES
The SPLM says the commission is deadlocked, unable to make key decisions like choosing a secretary-general to manage the budget. If the dispute over the post is not resolved within weeks, many fear time will have run out for the process. The commission has no office yet, and decisions on registration and voting papers have not been made. They will need to be printed and delivered from abroad and distributed to remote areas of south Sudan blocked by rains or lacking roads, adding to delays.
ABYEI REFERENDUM
The south Sudan referendum is meant to be held at the same time as a plebsicite in the disputed central oil-producing region of Abyei on whether to join the south or north. However the north-south partners have failed to agree on members of this referendum commission and are deadlocked. A ruling by the Hague-based Permanent Court for Arbitration on Abyei's borders has not been demarcated following threats by the nomadic Arab Missiriya in the north. The SPLM says the NCP is settling thousands of Missiriya in northern Abyei to influence the vote. The NCP denies this. But it is looking less likely this vote can happen alongside the southern referendum.
WHO CAN VOTE?
The law defining who can vote is so complex that even legal experts find it difficult to interpret. Few southern Sudanese are aware of whether they will be able to vote or where. Millions of southerners who live in the north or abroad should be eligible to vote but may not know it. Given the ethnic nature of registration, disputes about who is a southerner and eligible to vote are inevitable. After centuries of inter-marriage, many Sudanese who consider themselves northerners could well be eligible to vote as they have a southern grandparent.
SECURITY
A rise in tribal clashes in the heavily-armed south, mostly over cattle raids or ethnic rivalries, has raised concerns that many people may be unable to vote unless the SPLM-dominated south Sudan government can improve security outside main towns. The police lacks capacity to secure the south and the south Sudan army is still in transition from guerrillas into a regular force. Discipline is a problem. During April elections, the army was accused of intimidating voters and at times taking over counting or entire voting centres. Such actions could seriously affect the credibility of the sensitive referendum.
End
South Sudan referendum at risk over commission standoff says SPLM
Sudan Tribune website, Paris
13 August 2010
13 August, 2010 (KHARTOUM) – The standoff between north and south Sudan over the appointment of a secretary-general to the commission tasked with organizing South Sudan’s referendum on independence from the north is threatening to derail preparations for the poll, according to secretary-general of the SPLM who govern south Sudan.
The referendum on southern independence is the linchpin of a 2005 peace deal between the SPLM and the NCP, which ended over two-decades of civil war. In the deal, known as the Comprehensive Peace Agreement, the former enemies agreed to share power and grant autonomous rule to the south governed by the SPLM. Implementing the deal has been characterized by constant bickering and mutual distrust. The deal is due to end in January 2011, with referendum on southern self determination.
Pagan Amum, the secretary-general of the SPLM, said yesterday that process had been paralyzed by failure for the two sides to agree on who should head the referendum commission.
"The referendum commission clearly seems to have reached a deadlock in the process of selection of the secretary-general. The commission is now paralyzed, it is not working," Reuters quoted Amum as saying.
Amum warned that failure to overcome this obstacle within the coming two weeks means that the referendum “will meet its demise.”
The senior SPLM official expressed his concern over the comments of Tarek Osman Al-Tahir, a member of the referendum commission who on 9 August suggested that the poll be delayed to complete the necessary pre-referendum procedures.
"I am afraid there may be elements within the referendum commission that are actually planning a postponement, or in the worst case a total betrayal [of the right] to be exercised by the people of southern Sudan," AFP reported Amun as saying.
Although it was scheduled to be formed at the beginning of 2010, as per the CPA, the commission, which is responsible for running the referendum, was only appointed in June.
Explaining why a delay to the referendum is not an option for the south, Amum told Reuters, "the hopes and expectations of the people of south Sudan are so pinned on that date that it would be dangerous to postpone it because the level of frustration and disappointment would be so high for anybody to manage."
In an address to a rally held in Egypt four days ago, Pagan said he expected southerners would vote overwhelmingly in favor of secession, attributing this to “the failure in defining Sudan as an Arab Islamic state.”
Before the CPA, the NCP attempted to rule the whole of Sudan, including the mainly Christian south, under Islamic Shari’a Law.
“This error”, he said, “is what led the Sudanese state to war with all those who found themselves outside the purview of that definition.”
Appointing the commission’s secretary-general is not the only stumbling block for the referendum. The two partners have also failed to agree the demarcation of north-south border, which is made more controversial as Sudan’s main oil fields are located in the border area.
Most fields lie in the south and in the oil rich region of Abyei, whose residents are due to hold a simultaneous referendum on whether to join the south or the north.
Preparations for Abyei’s poll have also stalled along border demarcation disputes.
A UN source told Sudan Tribune on condition of anonymity earlier this week that the issues of Abyei’s referendum could be largely resolved if greater resources where applied by the UN Mission in Sudan (UNMIS) due its relatively small scale in comparison to the south.
Conducting the southern referendum considering the current deadlock and remaining timescale would be more of a challenge the source said as 64 additional UN sites have to be established in southern Sudan.
UNMIS is mandated to support the referendum whenever the SPLM and NCP agree to hold it, they said.
As it stands UNMIS is expected to bring in 600 additional staff to assist the two referenda.
According to the source, this could increase to 800 (as well as increasing the number of helicopters and vehicles needed) if issues such as appointing the southern referendum commissioner are not resolved in the next two weeks.
The referendum is expected to cost $100 million, with $60 million from the UN, $20 million from the Sudanese government and the last $20 million from bilateral donors such as the US, Canadian and Dutch governments the source said.
UN Development Program ‘basket fund’ for the referendum has already received over $25 million.
End
Unfinished Report On Mineral-rich Kafia Kini
Dear All,
An unedited draft of a forthcoming report from the Rift Valley
Institute (RVI) on Kafia Kingi, written by Edward Thomas, was
circulated in error earlier this week under the title "Between Darfur
and the South". Please do not quote this draft report or circulate it
further.
Thanks to all for your understanding.
From the RVI :
The finished version will be published and circulated in October, with
a related report by Douglas Johnson, "When Boundaries Become Borders",
covering the peoples of Sudan's north-south boundary zone (and areas
on Southern Sudan's international borders). The two titles are the
first volumes in the RVI's Contested Borderlands series. To join the
circulation list for these and other RVI publications, please write to
institute@riftvalley.net.
SUDAN: Thousands struggle to survive as Kalma aid cutoff
NAIROBI, 12 August 2010 (IRIN) - Humanitarian access to Kalma, the
largest settlement for internally displaced persons (IDPs) in Sudan's
Southern Darfur State remains cut off ten days after the government
blocked UN agencies and the last five NGOs still operating in the camp
from distributing food and medical aid to an estimated 82,000 IDPs.
Tensions in Kalma rose on 25 July, at the conclusion of the latest
round of peace talks in Doha, Qatar, with some IDPs claiming they were
not fully represented at the talks. Protests inside the camp pitted
those against the negotiations, belonging mostly to the Sudan
Liberation Movement (SLM) of Abdul-Wahid Mohamed Nur, and those
supporting it.
As a result of the unrest, six people, five men and a woman - all
IDPs representatives in the camp and opponents of the peace talks -
sought protection inside the premises of a community policing centre
(CPC) of the joint UN-AU Mission in Darfur peacekeeping force
(UNAMID).
On 2 August, while banning aid agencies from accessing the camp,
motivating the decision with the internationals' inability of
maintaining security inside the camp government, officials in South
Darfur also asked UNAMID to hand over the six people, suspected of
taking part in clashes.
At a press conference held in Khartoum at the beginning of this week,
the Governor of South Darfur State, Abdel Hamid Musa Kasha, disclosed
the government's intention to remove Kalma camp described as military
base and political platform for Abdel Wahid Al-Nur.
Yesterday, in a meeting held in Nyala, capital of South Darfur,
between the Joint UN-African Union Special Representative for Darfur,
Ibrahim Gambari, and Sudan Government Officials, GOS raised the issue
of joint patrols with UNAMID forces but no conclusion was yet reached
- Senior UNAMID Officials told IRIN.
Residents of Kalma camp had been resisting the presence of Sudanese
police inside the camp for the past six years. After the police tried
to enter the camp leaving 32 IDPs dead in August 2008, UNAMID
established policing center and organized patrols around the
settlements to protect its residents from nocturnal attacks by
militias.
Thousands without food, water and medicine
According to Samuel Hendricks, the spokesperson for the UN Office for
Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA) in Darfur, supplies of
drugs and medicine would need to be assessed to estimate how long they
can last but lack of food was already a major concern.
"The last food distribution would have been at the beginning of July.
Blanket feeding for children under five was scheduled to start at the
beginning of August, and General Food Distribution [GFD] this week,
but it all have been prevented by lack of access to the settlement"
Hendricks told IRIN.
Following the expulsion of 13 NGOs from Darfur in March 2009, Kalma
residents went for three months without food distribution.
"Obviously we would like to avoid a similar scenario," Hendricks said.
As no official population census was carried out in 2009 in any of
the IDP settlements in the Southern Darfur State (Kalma, Otash,
As-Salaam, Mershing, Al-Serif, Beleil, Al-Sheref, Um Lubassa, Mossei,
Sekele), no one really knows for certain how many people are in Kalma
camp. (link to: Sudan census and IDP camps/Kalma).
However, UN World Food Programme (WFP) sources said at least 82,000
people have been living the camp since 2003, having fled attacks by
Sudanese forces and proxy militia.
Details and data about the scale and scope of the humanitarian and
human rights crisis inside Kalma are difficult to assess as
journalists and independent observers have been denied access since
March 2009, and well before on many occasions.
Susannah Syrkin, the deputy director of Physicians for Human Rights,
US based organization promoting the monitoring of health-related human
rights, told IRIN she was concerned about the sanitation and hygiene
situation in Kalma as the camp is located in a natural declivity.
During the rainy season, she said, there is a serious drainage
problem.
The camp has 20 motorized water pumps and 28 hand-held pumps, with a
total delivery capacity of 1,700 m3 per day. The blockade imposed by
the government has also caused of lack of fuel for motorized pumps,
and as the UN Children's Fund (UNICEF) confirmed, fuel supplies ran
out on 7 August.
Syrkin told IRIN that in 2009, when Kalma residents refused aid from
the government to protest the expulsion of international aid agencies,
there was not enough fuel for the main motorized water pumps, forcing
residents to resort to using the "few dozen" hand pumps available and
the nearby polluted river for their water supply.
Cp/[END]
CLICK ON LINK BELOW TO READ THE REPORT ONLINE
Http://www.irinnews.org/report.aspx?ReportID=90149
Upcoming referenda "real tests" for Abyei people, southern Sudanese - commentary
Juba Post, Khartoum
12 August 2010; 09:59 GMT
Text of report in English by privately-owned Sudanese newspaper Juba Post on 12 August
JUBA - Southern Sudanese! What descriptive words are used to label black Sudanese in the context of a unitary Sudan? Black Sudanese are people whose national identities are either uncertain or engulfed by the Arab Sudanese identity. This is because Sudan, as a sovereign state, is erroneously identified as an Arab world country and an Islamic state.
In which case, black Sudanese identities are lost in the above two identity descriptions of the Sudan. Black Sudanese ethnic as well as religious identities are hence lost. This sad fact has long relegated black Sudanese as "second class citizens" in the land supposedly known as "Bilad as-Sud" which means the land of the blacks. This is a very sad reality of the black Sudanese situation in the country.
The more often used descriptive words to belittle the black Sudanese are: Black Sudanese are the "abid" slaves of the red Arab Sudanese. That is, they are the ones who do most of the dirty jobs in the country ranging from domestic to public.
Such jobs include but are not limited to cleaning, laundry, barrow pushing, night and day guarding and carrying goods on their heads whereas the red Arab Sudanese are well ensconced in luxury, wield absolute powers and resources and maintain undue control over all white collar jobs - a situation that has permanently pushed the black Sudanese to live on political, economic and social margins as refugees and, or displaced persons in their own country.
How do the January 2011 referenda fit in this situational context? The Southern Sudanese, or black Sudanese, must wake up to the crucial referenda call. The January 2011 referenda are "real tests" of whether Southern Sudanese and [oil-rich region of] Abyei people are bonafide Sudanese with featuring national identities and of whether they are ready to continue to live under the cover of Arab-Islamic identities.
The referenda will also determine whether or not Southern Sudanese are comfortable with their relegated status as second class citizens in their own country and whether they are happy being enslaved in their own land.
Willing to break the dirty cycle of enslavement, oppression and marginalization to create a "clean land of freedom" for the Southern Sudanese to live in dignity, walk with their heads up and manage their own political, economic, social, cultural and territorial affairs will also be tested during the forthcoming referenda.
Southerners! The countdown to the referendum leaves no room for ambivalence and, or indecisiveness. The decision and choice are yours. Decide now or else live to regret indefinitely.
As you read this article, consider changing your political stance for the upcoming referenda. Unity of Sudan has long lost sweetness, taste and everything good that you can think about. Separation is now the healing, rejuvenating and joy rendering option.
How can you continue to live with people who have robbed you of your God-given dignity, destroyed your happiness and made life miserable for your ancestors, for you and [who] are determined to make it even worse for your children and future generations if they manage to get your heads in the pot of "yes" for unity.
Ramadan in Sudan: Restaurants to stay open in Khartoum
Thursday, August 12, 2010
HE chairman of the non-Muslim commission in Khartoum, Joshua Dau, has affirmed continuity of the last year's deal between the commission and the localities, which stipulates opening all restaurants in Khartoum to give non-Muslims and those who are unable to fast a chance of having their meals during Ramadan.
Source: Miraya FM - Thursday, 12 August 2010 02:50
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